The Effect of Harbor Developments on Future High?Tide Flooding in Miami, Florida

Little is known about the effect of tidal changes on minor flooding in most lagoonal estuaries, often due to a paucity historical records that predate landscape changes. In this contribution, we recover and apply archival range data show mean Miami, Florida, has almost doubled since 1900, from 0.32 0.61 m today. A likely cause dredging ?15 deep, 150 wide harbor entrance channel beginning early 20th century, which changed northern Biscayne Bay choked inlet system one with close coastal conditions. To investigate implications for high-tide flooding, develop validate tidal-inference based methodology leverages estimates pre-1900 obtain predictions constituents. Next, water level represent modern variations are projected forward time using different sea rise scenarios. Results increase hastened occurrence present-day total integrated number days floods 2020–2100 period will be approximately O(103) more under present day tides compared pre-development These results suggest change may previously under-appreciated factor increasing prevalence our methods open door improving understanding other heavily-altered systems.